$\begingroup$ Well in my opinion a good parallel can be made between sport betting and bookmakers on the one hand and derivative pricing and market makers of those derivative on the other hand. If you are given a set of bookmakers taking bets for let's say one underlying outcome and that they quote this event as a percentage (as for binary options). I mean by this that they should do the P&L scenarios of each outcome of the bets in their books and try to balance things so they can earn a living while taking as little risk as possible. Of course the clients do care about statistics and so they will think twice before taking bets that rarely occur (or pay too much for it). If you think at the market making of binary options, the situation is quite the same as the one with the bookie, but at the end what you get is the Risk Neutral Probability. This RN Probability is not always coherent with the statistics of the history of the underlying. This however can make sense if all the market makers are in some way minimizing the aggregate risk of their returns (I don't explain the word 'risk' here on purpose but here the limits set by risk managers should enter into play). camera bag cyber mondaybags black friday sale
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